With October upon us, it's beginning to look at least a little like Christmas in retailers' planning departments. According to the National Retail Federation, retailers are planning for sales growth that outpaces last year's anemic figure.
The NRF forecasts holiday sales to grow by 2.1 percent to a total of $447.1 billion in 2010. While this figure is below the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent and less than half the increases of the mid-2000s, it is still better than last year's 0.8 percent rise and a significant rebound from 2008's 3.9 percent sales decline.
Whether this cheerier-than-last-year sales outlook translates into cheerier-than-last-year employment depends on a number of factors. One of the biggest is the continued uncertainty in the retail sector, as elsewhere in the economy, over whether the current slow recovery is either durable or likely to strengthen.
"While many consumers will be wishing for apparel and electronics this holiday season, retailers are hoping the holidays bring sustainable economic growth," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "Though the retail industry is on stronger footing than lat year, companies are closely watching key economic indicators like employment and consumer confidence before getting too optimistic that the recession is behind them."
September's employment figures, whichk show private-sector payrolls shrinking slightly, gave cause for pause, especially after several months of modest private-sector job growth. The employment data comes on the heels of the Conference Board's monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which showed consumer confidence falling in September after rising in August.
On the other hand, the Conference Board's Help Wanted on-line data for that same month shows an increase in advertised job openings online after a decline in August. While advertised openings for positions in sales and related fields, which includes retail, fell in September, this should change as the holiday shopping season approaches.
So what to make of these mixed signals? If I knew, I'd probably be pulling down a nice salary as an analyst at The Conference Board, the Department of Labor, or maybe even the National Retail Federation. Let's just say that, like thie average American, I'm uncertain. At least it doesn't look like the situation is going to get worse as the holidays approach. Keep that resume polished and keep plugging away.
By: Sandy Smith
Sandy Smith is an award-winning writer and editor who has spent most of his career in public relations and corporate communications. His work has appeared in The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Philadelphia CityPaper, PGN, and a number of Web sites. Philly-area residents may also recognize him as "MarketStEl" of discussion-board fame. He has been a part of the great reserve army of freelance writers since January 2009 and is actively seeking opportunities wherever they may lie.
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