It’s happened time and time again; technology grows up and gives way to the latest and greatest innovation. Consumers jump on the bandwagon as it passes by as closet and thrift store shelves collect the outdated devices.
Boom-boxes turned into walkmans that morphed into Discmans that gave way to mp3 players. Now e-readers are struggling to hold their place on the timeline of functional technology as their popularity passes its peak and tablets step up to take their place in book bags and on coffee tables across the country.
The e-reader fad has seemed to come and go quicker than most tech crazes. Jordan Selburn, senior principal analyst for consumer platforms at IHS iSuppli which recently released a report on the topic, commented, “The rapid growth -- followed by the immediate collapse -- of the ebook reader market is virtually unheard of, even in the volatile consumer electronics space, where products have notoriously short life cycles.”
The survey reports that sales have declined 36% in 2012 and they are predicted to drop another 27% in 2013. 27.7 million e-reading units were shipped in 2011 at the pinnacle of their profits however in 2012 only 19.9 million units shipped out. By 2016, analysts expect that number to shrink to 7.1million shipped which equates to a loss of more than 66% since 2011.
Selburn noted, "The ebook reader market is on an alarmingly precipitous decline, sent reeling by more nimble tablet devices." Despite the higher price point, multi-use tablets are becoming more popular. 120 - 122.3 million tablets will ship in 2012 and by 2016 the amount is expected to increase to 282.7 - 340 million.
The growing realization in electronics is that single function devices can’t compete with emerging technology that bundles uses. It’s not just e-readers that are jeopardized by the do-it-all devices. Digital still cameras, GPS systems and MP3 players are facing similar scenarios and prospects. Selburn explains, "The stunning rise and then blazing flameout of e-readers perfectly encapsulate what has become an axiomatic truth in the industry: Single task devices like the e-reader are being replaced without remorse in the lives of consumers by their multifunction equivalents, in this case by media tablets."
The good news for businesses like Amazon and authors everywhere is that while e-readers are in danger, e-books are safe. Analyst, Jack Gold of J. Gold Associates, stated. "While the market for dedicated e-readers is shrinking, the market for dedicated consumption devices tied to particular delivery channels like Amazon with Kindle will remain healthy, albeit smaller than for the overall tablet market."
Proponents of e-readers argue that there will always be a need for task specific devices, that avid readers will always prefer a Nook or a Kindle to tablets because of things like weight and day/night readability. Laura Hazard Owen of PaidContent.org makes a good point saying “professional photographers aren’t throwing out their SLRs for an iPhone, heavy readers won’t swap their e-reader for a tablet.”
Because of this there will be a niche market for the devices. HIS speculates that e-readers will still sell if the price drops dramatically. They also note that the market for e-book readers remains strong in Eastern Europe and Russia, and opportunities to reach Africa and India are on the horizon. For the fast paced typical American consumer however, e-readers will soon be nestled in attics next to VCRs, record players and disk film cameras.
Image courtesy of adamr at FreeDigitalPhotos
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